Travel from the U.S. to Europe this year is expected to increase 2% to 4% – to 2008 levels – after a precipitous 12% drop in 2009, European Travel Commission Chairman USA Jean-Philippe Perol said last week.

But the American traveler, he said, is in search mode – searching for deals, searching for unique experiences, searching for “responsible” tourism.

And searching for deals is the underlying trend, said Perol, noting: “The new normal is permanently changed spending habits.”

And that extends from vacation travelers to business travelers and even top end leisure travelers, who, Perol said, are all downgrading.

Perol, who heads Maison Francais in the U.S., spoke at the ETC’s annual Trans-Atlantic Conference in New York, which carried the theme “Defining the New Normal.”

Indeed, the “New Normal” is the consumer in search of deals, Virgin Atlantic Vacations president Nigel Osborne told Travel Market Report.

And that might not be such good news for travel agents and tour operators, he said, because consumers continue to think that they can get the best deals doing it themselves online. According to Osborne, the industry – agents and tour companies – have not done an effective job educating consumers about the value that they offer via packages.

Osborne said that the U.S. customer, unlike those in Canada and Western European countries, typically does not buy packages travel but purchases air and car rentals separately online.

“Agents must remember more and more people think they can build the vacation packages themselves,” said Osborne.

“So by showing the client that they (the agent) are just as savvy, they will build trust.”

He adds that agents should always have access to live inventory site with the latest airfares, then check online and contact the tour company’s call center, because often they can help the agent make more money and still offer their customers value.

“Deals, value and simple promotions” are what people traveling to Europe are seeking this year, according to Osborne, who adds that consumers are tired of delving through the fine print to determine what the real deal is.

“There is pent up demand,” he said. “People are waiting for deals. We did the Boston Globe Travel Show in February where I personally spoke to over 500 people, and most were planning to travel but were looking for deals, or waiting for the fall.”

Still, the business is rebounding as Virgin Vacations’ revenue “is up in double figure over last year’s – and we have no Oberammergau programs, except a few individual packages.”

Said Osborne: “The UK, Italy and France are top sellers followed closely by Greece and Spain, and the group business is coming back, with great pricing, especially on the pre and post cruise packages.”

At Key Tours International, Arthur A. Kienle, director of sales and business development, tells TMR that 2010 seems to be off to a good start.

“Business is well up over 2009, but then I don't think that's a fair comparison. Our early business has shown solid growth vs. 2008” – up about 8% at last check.

Noting that the industry has conditioned customers to seek out deals/specials, which are still a strong pull, Keinle said that Key Tours does a large custom designed FIT business and thus there tends to be less shopping among its customers who nevertheless are still searching for the best values.

For travel agents, positioning Europe and the Mediterranean hasn't really changed in the ETC’s era of the “New Normal.”

“It’s still a very popular vacation choice for a large percentage of North Americans and I would say that if anything, people are now looking for more unique and specialized vacations that focus on art history, culinary trips and destinations that offer general historic value. And of course shopping!”

He said that at recent trade shows in Florida and the Carolinas, the general consensus among travel sellers was that the business is returning to “‘normal’ -- whatever that is.”

The activity in the travel agencies that Keinle has visited in the first two months of 2010 indicate the business is strongly rebounding.

“Of course the question again is, Compared to what?”

To judge from the ETC’s forecast – 2008.