The airline industry said new federal tarmac delay rules, which go into effect on April 29, will lead to a significant rise in canceled flights. Travel sellers said any attempt to make this a self-fulfilling prophecy is just bad customer service, but aren’t surprised. Some also note that the resulting passenger inconvenience could add to the value of booking through a travel agent.

Since the new delay rules were passed, the airline industry has been outspoken about the dire consequences it says will result. In fact, the ATA called this ruling a “classic case of unintended consequences.”

Rather than risk being fined, airlines will cancel flights for bad weather, or any other issue that could result in a wait on the tarmac, many predicted.

When asked by Travel Market Report why the airline wouldn’t wait two hours on the tarmac in case of a possible take-off and then unload passengers before the three hour mark, Tim Smith, an American Airlines spokesman replied:“Not trying to be unkind, but the idea that we could just “let a few folks off” at two hours and still continue on with those who wanted to remain onboard [editor’s note – this is not what TMR asked] reflects the same kind of naiveté that the consumer activists who wanted this so badly regularly voice.”

Smith continued to explain that any tarmac delays would involve other aircraft, which makes getting back to the gate, parking, opening doors to let people out, refueling, and then getting back to the line for take-off within the prescribed three hours is nearly impossible. Furthermore, all these time delays combined with duty time flown prior to the delay would be likely to result in flight crews running out of duty time.

“Going back to the gate at any time during a tarmac delay significantly increases the likelihood that the flight is going to be cancelled,” said Smith.

Many travel agents have said the airlines are just blowing a lot of hot air, but they are split on whether they believe the airlines actually will cancel more flights.

“I can understand their situation with reasonable delays on flights, however, passengers have limits on what they will tolerate,” said Roxanne Boryczki, president of AZ Trails Travel. “If the airlines should start canceling flights just to make a point, then that would be detrimental to the entire travel industry, and completely unfair to their industry partners including the tour operators, cruise lines, hotels and travel agents. This industry is very finely intertwined and what affects one portion of the industry has a direct impact on the rest of us be it small or large.”

“I would hope the airlines will act responsibly and do what is necessary to improve their service to the public,” she added.

In an e-mail, American Airlines’ Smith said, “We don’t pre-cancel unless we KNOW well ahead of time there will be extreme weather and when it will arrive…”

Smith implied the rash of cancellations being predicted will come from flights that have left the gate and gotten into the line for take-off only to be told by Air Traffic Control that unexpected bad weather (such as thunderstorms) is stopping flights. Planes usually wait in line for the storm to pass. Or flights that have been diverted to other airports due to bad weather, which would normally wait on the tarmac for the OK to re-launch to the original airport destination, could be cancelled.

In order to avoid mass cancellations or fines at one airport, Delta and Jetblue have already asked for a temporary waiver to these fees at JFK Internatonal Airport in New York as one of the airport's main runways will be closed for the next four months. Delays there are expected to skyrocket.

Preemptive Delays?

Connie Ebright, owner of Ebright Travel, is skeptical of Smith’s claim that the airlines will not preemptively cancel flights.

“The airlines are going to cancel the flights when clients are already on the way to the airport. By that time the airline will know if there are delays and they can cancel the flight before clients board and avoid the fine,” she said, adding the airlines are being vindictive.

“They are saying ‘If you fine us for leaving passengers on the tarmac for hours, we will just cancel those flights that have been delayed, and then you cannot fine us. We will teach you that you cannot legislate how we operate our flights.”

However, Paul Ruden, senior vice president for legal and industry affairs at ASTA, said the airlines are not going to cancel flights willy-nilly.

Paul Ruden

“Canceling a flight has potentially major impacts on the aircraft routing schedule so it is not something any carrier would do lightly or to ‘make a point,’” he told Travel Market Report.

Like Smith, Ruden said airlines are going to be much more “sensitive” about the risk of moving planes onto the tarmac when bad weather threatens or has arrived and may get worse.

“I don’t see that is a problem if it results in preventing extended tarmac delays that harm passengers,” he added. “That is what the rule was intended to do.”

But Ebright said she believes flights will be cancelled for more than just bad weather. She pointed to the airlines’ tendency to cancel flights when they’re not full as a prime example.

“There is nothing we travel agents can do to protect our clients,” she said. “We are all at the mercy of the airlines. Having travel delay insurance does not help if you just missed an important meeting.”

Ruden agreed. “As for the role of travel agents, there is no way to ‘protect’ against this scenario in advance, except by establishing means to communicate when the need arises. When bad weather threatens, the client should, when possible, consult the agent about what options, if any, exist. Remember that as aircraft have been grounded and load factors have risen, the options to switch to later flights or other routings have become more restricted than they used to be.”

Boryczki said an increase in cancelled flights could actually benefit travel agents.

“When we have to accommodate clients due to cancelled flights, it creates more work for the agents, but it is part of the reason why people use a travel agent – they don’t want to be stranded out there on their own with no one to help. We have often salvaged at trip for a client by being able to find them alternate flights or transportation. I would hope the general public and the media realize this value in using a travel agent and would be more inclined to book their future travel through an agency.”

Ruden told TMR many people never stopped making bookings through agencies “precisely because they wanted to have a helper and advocate they could turn to when plans were disrupted.”

But he also agreed that it is possible that more people will “realize that it pays to have such a support system behind them when they travel and will seek out agents for that benefit.”