Brace for Impact: Predictions Point to Hyperactive 2024 Hurricane Season

Travel advisors are well aware of the havoc that hurricanes can wreak on travel, from flight disruptions to canceled cruises to damage and loss of life.

Several private and public institutions have already issued their predictions for how strong this year’s hurricane season, which typically runs from June through November with the worst storms occurring from mid-August through mid-October. And, if predictions hold, this year’s hurricane season could be one of the most disruptive in recent memory. 

None of the more than 20 private, public, and government agencies that predict the hurricane season are anticipating a lower-than-normal season, and just one of the 20-plus is predicting an entirely normal season. 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting a heavy Atlantic hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms for the 2024 hurricane season, a prediction that includes between 8 and 13 hurricanes and 4 and 7 major (category 3 to 5) hurricanes. 

For comparison, a normal hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Last year had 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (predictions called for just a “slightly more active” season).

The NOAA National Weather Service, in a prediction this week, also forecasted an “above-average” hurricane season for this year with 17 to 25 total named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. 

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” it said. 

WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee-based weather analytics and forensic meteorology firm that puts out predictions and weather data in a regular newsletter, issued an objectively scary 2024 prediction:

“There is a 90-95% chance of a hyperactive hurricane season with at least two-thirds more tropical activity than normal…the 2024 season has 50-50 odds of landing in the 22-26 tropical storm, 10-13 hurricane, and 5-8 major hurricane ranges,” Ryan Truchelut, Chief Meteorologist at WeatherTiger, wrote in this week’s newsletter.

What’s driving the prediction is sea surface temperatures, which are already as warm today as they would be in late August, with no sign of a mean reversion in site. Atmospheric conditions aren’t yet conducive for hurricanes to form, but they will be in a short period. There are other factors, too, including the timing of La Nina development, which you can read about in the full WeatherTiger post. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in March predicted 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes in the Atlantic before the end of September 2024, which it said would make for a “particularly active” season. Just like WeatherTiger, the ECMWF cited the shift in La Nina conditions.

“The timing of a shift to La Niña conditions is seen as one of the critical factors for the 2024 hurricane season, as that could make conditions more conducive to storm formation and reduce the wind shear that hinders tropical storm development,” it wrote. 

Colorado State University forecasters also have predicted an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in an April release. CSU researchers predicted a 62% chance for a major hurricane on the U.S. coastline this year, 19% higher than average. They also projected that there will be 23 named tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, along with 45 hurricane days, and 13 major hurricane days. 

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the forecast states. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”