Tropical Storm Bret No Longer Forecasted to Become Hurricane

by Daniel McCarthy June 20, 2023

The second named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Bret, will likely not reach hurricane strength.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its latest update on Tuesday, altering its prediction that the storm would likely become a hurricane before making landfall in the Caribbean by the end of this week.

“Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night,” the NHC said on Tuesday.

Even with the downgrade in its prediction, the storm is still strengthening and the NHC said it could issue a Tropical Storm Watch “later today or tonight for portions of the Lesser Antilles,” which includes Barbados, Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and more.

Those areas can expect heavy winds along with rainfall between four and six inches with a maximum of 10 inches in some areas across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia. The heavy rainfall could lead to some flash flooding, including some urban flooding.

Here is the expected timeline according to the NHC:

The other storm that the NHC is tracking, which it is currently calling a disturbance, now has a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone, according to the NHC’s 2 p.m. update.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the latest update reads.

In May, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its prediction for the 2023 hurricane season and said that it expects somewhere between 12 and 17 names storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Five to nine of those storms will likely become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and one to four will reach hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or higher), the NOAA said.