Tropical Depression Likely to Form in Caribbean Over the Weekend

The next storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season, which could turn into Tropical Storm Patty, is becoming more likely to form in the Caribbean Sea this week.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) puts the chance of the system forming at 60% over the next week. The NHC says that the system, currently a “broad area of low pressure,” is likely to develop over the Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Other forecasters, like AccuWeather, give it a higher chance (90%).

There’s a lot up in the air if and when the storm forms. The NHC only says that the storm is likely to bring heavy rains over portions of the western Caribbean Sea, from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Columbia.

The storm could move northeast towards the eastern Caribbean and then Florida. While the NHC doesn’t give a forecast of the track, AccuWeather gives two. If it stays on a northern track, Patty could impact South Florida. If it goes on a western track, it would be unlikely to impact the U.S. at all.

While the storm is expected to be slow to develop, those in its path or traveling through the Caribbean or Florida over the next week should not take it for granted. And even if it doesn’t form, Accuweather still expects 1 to 3 more named storms for the 2024 season.