Tropical Storm Erin Projected to Intensify into Major Hurricane by End of Week

The first major tropical storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Erin, could hit the Bahamas this weekend.

As of the latest update on Monday afternoon, Erin had officially become a tropical storm west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the central Atlantic Ocean. The storm was still a considerable distance away from any major landmass in the Caribbean.

However, both the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and AccuWeather project Erin to become a major hurricane by the end of the week, as high water temperatures allow for its development and intensification.

The NHC has a forecast for Erin through Saturday morning, at which point the storm could be approaching the northeast coast of Puerto Rico. AccuWeather says Erin could be either steered away from the U.S. and back out to sea or continue westward and impact travel in Florida and along the U.S. East Coast.

“Erin will be guided westward by the Bermuda high through the Atlantic this week,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva in a Monday forecast. “There are two key factors that will determine which route this storm takes by the end of this weekend. The positioning of the Bermuda high and the strength of a cold front pushing off the East Coast will eventually determine whether this storm steers away from the U.S. and back out to sea or if it barrels through the front and continues westward. A dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. may also influence the track of this storm.”

The NOAA has predicted the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season will be above normal, with a range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), but as of Aug. 11, no major named storm has made an impact on travel. Hurricane season typically runs through the end of November. Still, this summer has already been a particularly bad one for weather-related flight cancellations, with some estimates showing an increase of more than 25% over 2024.