NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Travel advisors and their clients beware, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a volatile hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, with a 60% chance of an above-normal season.

In total, NOAA is predicting a range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3,4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher. There is a 30% chance of a near-normal season.

For comparison, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season featured 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, including Hurricane Milton, which hit Category 5 status in early October, and Hurricane Helene, which forced the closure of New Orleans International (MSY) in September.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” 

NOAA experts are citing a confluence of factors – including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and a higher potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon. All of these elements combined favor tropical storm formations.

This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.