Air Canada Estimates Negative Strike Impact of $375 Million

Air Canada says the financial impact of the August strike by flight attendants is estimated at $375 million.

The airline has released estimated results for the third quarter of 2025 and updated full year 2025 guidance, which was suspended in August.

For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, Air Canada anticipates:

• Operated capacity to decline by approximately 2% from the same period in 2024 as a result of the cancellation of more than 3,200 flights.
• Operating income between $250 million and $300 million and adjusted EBITDA between $950 million and $1 billion, a decline from operating income totalling $1.040 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.523 billion for the third quarter of 2024.

Labour Disruption Impacts

When CUPE gave notice of its intent to strike, Air Canada acted on prepared contingency plans and ultimately cancelled over 3,200 flights in August.

The financial impact of the labour disruption – which AC describes as “an unlawful strike,” is estimated to be $375 million in operating income and adjusted EBITDA. This amount is derived from the combination of three components:

• The revenue impact is estimated to be $430 million, mainly due to refunds issued to customers, customer compensation and lower than expected travel bookings in August and early September. 
• $145 million in costs are estimated to have been avoided due to less flying activity, largely attributable to lower fuel expenses. 
• The cost avoidance was partially offset by an estimated $90 million of incremental costs associated with reimbursements to customers for out-of-pocket expenses and labour-related operating costs.

Impact on Customers

Air Canada says it remains committed to resolving every claim submitted by affected customers quickly and accurately, having processed more than 60,000 claims to date. Air Canada provides updates on its progress here.

Arbitration with CUPE

Air Canada and CUPE are proceeding to arbitration to finalize the wage portion of the four-year tentative agreement. No labour disruption can be initiated by either party during the arbitration process or the term of the new agreement.

Updated Full Year 2025 Outlook

Air Canada is restoring and updating its full year 2025 financial and capacity guidance to reflect the financial and operational impact of the labour disruption and its expectations for the remainder of 2025, as follows: