Hurricane Season Begins: Most Forecasts Suggest a Below Average Season

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1 and the U.S.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released a forecast predicting a below-average hurricane season, which corresponds to other expert forecasts.

The anticipated return of El Niño – and its potential to be historically strong – is a driving force behind the outlook. The last time NOAA forecast a below-average season was in 2015, which also had an El Niño. Twelve named storms formed in the Atlantic basin that year.

Overall, NOAA says this season has a 55% chance of being a below-average hurricane season with 35% and 10% chances of near-average and above-average seasons, respectively.

Between eight and 14 total named storms — that means tropical storms and hurricanes — are expected in the basin from now through November 30, when the season ends.

Of those, NOAA expects between three and six to become hurricanes, with up to three of those reaching major hurricane status — Category 3 or higher. An average Atlantic hurricane season generates 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.

Last year ended with 13 named storms, five of which were hurricanes. However, three of those exploded to rare Category 5 status — Erin, Humberto and Melissa – the latter of which made devastating impact on Jamaica.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.  El Niño typically reduces tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean by increasing storm-disrupting wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which results in fewer storms than normal. 

One caveat is that extremely warm ocean temperatures can act like rocket fuel, allowing storms to develop quickly despite El Niño’s increased wind shear. That happened during the 2023 Atlantic season. 

However, while sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are still running warmer than normal at this point in the year, they’re not approaching the back-to-back record levels of 2023 and 2024.

Sea temperatures typically peak around August, so there’s months of potential warming ahead that could result in more storms than expected.