Could U.S. Midterm Results Spark a Canadian Travel Comeback? Travel Advisors Weigh In

Could a political shakeup in Washington be the first step toward bringing Canadian travellers back to the United States?

That’s a question facing Canada’s travel industry following Tuesday’s (Nov. 3) U.S. midterm elections, which saw Democrats sweep both the Senate and House of Representatives in a major rebuke of President Donald Trump and his policies.

Several long-held Republican states flipped to the Democrats, delivering a significant domestic setback for the president, whose administration has spent much of the past two years locked in a bitter trade dispute with Canada.

The election results could signal a shift in the political climate that has discouraged Canadians from travelling south of the border.

But will that translate into bookings?

Canadian travel advisors are cautiously optimistic, with some already seeing signs of renewed interest in U.S. destinations.

“A step in the right direction”

For Kitchener, ON-based Kristina Ziegler of Stonetown Travel, the election results offer a glimmer of hope for a market that has struggled to regain its Canadian audience.

“I am very hopeful that the results from the midterm election from yesterday may help to slowly move the needle a little to hopefully get clients thinking about the USA as a travel option again,” Ziegler told Travel Market Report Canada.

“The U.S. is such a diverse country and has so much to offer in many different states for all types of travellers.”

“It will take time for it get back to normal, but I’m already starting to see more clients asking again about cruises out of the U.S. and Las Vegas packages to name a few.”

That renewed curiosity could be an encouraging sign for travel sellers.

“Too soon to tell”

But other advisors say political change must be accompanied by tangible improvements in Canada-U.S. relations before Canadian travellers return in meaningful numbers.

Jamie Angus-Milton, president and managing partner at Uniglobe Carefree Travel in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, believes the coming months will be critical.

“I think it’s too soon to tell,” she said when asked whether the election results could shift Canadian attitudes.

“I think it will depend on what changes we start to see between U.S.-Canada relations and what that looks like over the coming months.  However, it is a good step in the right direction!”

A relationship under strain

The political fallout has been substantial.

Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods, repeated suggestions that Canada become America’s 51st state and other provocative rhetoric have strained a relationship that has traditionally supported millions of cross-border trips annually.

The impact has extended beyond politics, with Canadians avoiding American-made products, reconsidering travel plans and redirecting vacation spending toward domestic and overseas destinations.

Although Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump have recently acknowledged progress in trade discussions, the two countries remain without an agreement.

It’s unclear whether Tuesday’s midterms will accelerate negotiations or meaningfully change Canadian perceptions.

Some Canadians interviewed by The Canadian Press welcomed the Democratic victory but expressed mixed feelings about returning to the U.S.

Toronto resident Juli Taylor said the election results have not changed her immediate travel intentions.

“I’m Canadian, we are very proud of our country and we have been picked on a lot and we are done — and we’re absolutely overjoyed with the outcome in the States,” she told CP.

Taylor said she might reconsider visiting if the tariff dispute is resolved, “but it’s not my first choice, anyways.”

Signs of Recovery, But A Long Road Ahead

There are signs that Canadian travel to the U.S. is already recovering, even if volumes remain significantly below past levels.

According to Statistics Canada‘s latest figures, released in October, Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. reached 1.9 million in September, an increase of 6.8 per cent year over year.

That followed an 8.8 per cent increase in August, marking six consecutive months of year-over-year growth.

The comparison with 2024, however, reveals how far the market still has to recover.

Automobile travel return trips rose 5.6 per cent year over year in September but remained 31.1 per cent below September 2024.

Air travel return trips increased 11.6 per cent year over year but were still 18.7 per cent below September 2024.

The longer-term impact is more striking. A Statistics Canada year-in-review report published in July found that Canadian-resident return border crossings from the U.S. plunged 25.4 per cent in 2025.

Canadian leisure travel shifted decisively toward overseas destinations, with international visits outside the U.S. climbing 12.2 per cent, representing 1.1 million additional trips.

Meanwhile, Canadian visits to the U.S. declined 21.5 per cent, equivalent to 3.2 million fewer visits.

The financial consequences are also considerable. Canadian travel spending in the U.S. fell $3.3 billion to $18.8 billion in 2025, while spending on overseas leisure trips surged $3.6 billion to $22.8 billion.

All about trust

For Brett Tabor of Revolution Travel Group in Prince Edward Island, Tuesday’s midterm results represent an opportunity to begin rebuilding something more fundamental than travel demand: trust.

“There’s still a long way to go for the Canadian public to rebuild trust and positive perceptions about U.S. travel, but I believe this is a moment that we needed,” Tabor told Travel Market Report Canada.

“This week, we are reminded of the good that exists in our neighbours. We will rebuild our tourism relationship for here.”