Sequestration’s Impact on Travel Still Mostly Hot Air

Despite dire warnings of four-hour TSA lines and other travel problems, so far much-publicized fears about the catastrophic impact of sequestration on business travel are mostly hot air.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said on Monday that customs lines had expanded by 200%. But major airports across the country, including O’Hare, LAX and Atlanta-Hartsfield, said they had seen no delays attributable to sequestration.

Even as the federal government began making the anticipated $86 billion in spending cuts, sequestration seems to be having few obvious effects on travel (though a massive storm was snarling air traffic from the Midwest to the East Coast at midweek).

No impact so far
“Sequestration has not made a difference in travel so far,” said Ron DiLeo, president and chief executive officer of AirPlus International’s USA operations. “We talk with a lot of travel managers every day, and no one is complaining about longer wait times at security, on the ground, in the air, or coming back into the country.”

That is not to say that sequestration won’t start slowing travel over the coming weeks.

“Travel managers are focused on traveler productivity,” said Greeley Koch, executive director of the Association of Corporate Travel Executives. “Anything that impacts productivity is important.  Most of the cuts and changes we have been hearing about won’t happen until April or later.”

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) issued a statement on March 1 saying that travelers “will likely not see immediate impacts at airport security checkpoints, but lines and wait times will increase as reductions to overtime and the inability to backfill positions for attrition occur.”

Customs update
Customs and Border Protection eliminated overtime on March 1, the agency said. Between 20% and 40% of customs lanes at some of the busiest gateways such as JFK and Miami International are typically staffed by employees on overtime. If the overtime ban continues, lines and customs delays will get longer.

The agency said furlough notices will go out today. Furloughs would take effect in 30 days, further adding to customs delays.

TSA staff vacancies
TSA has also slashed overtime and put a freeze on hiring, and it expects to begin sending furlough notices as early as this week.

The agency predicted it will have 1,000 vacancies for airport security personnel by Memorial Day and 2,600 vacancies by the end of September and the end of the federal fiscal year. Security wait times exceeding 30 to 40 minutes could double, the agency warned.

FAA furloughs
If those cuts happen, business travel can expect problems. The Federal Aviation Administration has already talked about eliminating air traffic control at airports with fewer than 10,000 commercial operations annually. That could mean closing towers at about 100 airports across the country due to 10% staffing cuts from furloughs.  

FAA furloughs could also eliminate midnight shifts at another 60 airports and delay flights by up to 90 minutes at some of the busiest airports. At Atlanta-Hartsfield, general manager Louis Miller said air traffic control cutbacks could force closure of one of the five runways at the busiest airport in the world.

Impact on travel policy
“There have been some pretty clear signals from TSA and FAA,” DiLeo said. “If the spending cuts remain in effect, service will suffer. Agencies are looking at four-day work weeks and no new hiring. It will mean longer lines and we will all have to plan accordingly.”

That includes travel managers and TMCs. Travel policy assumes a high degree of predictability and reliability for travel. As travelers see the reliability of flight schedules slip, so will adherence to policy.

“Travel managers are already looking at alternatives, like more videoconferencing and more calls,” Koch said. “Uncertainty is what is going to cause concern and cancellation of trips. Travel managers hate uncertainty more than anything else.”

More flexible
Clients are reconsidering the need for every trip, DiLeo said.

AirPlus is also seeing clients add flexibility in areas such as upgrades, early departures and additional hotel nights in order to ensure traveler attendance at crucial meetings that must be handled in person.

“It comes down to comparing the cost of an extra night or two in a hotel and/or a flight upgrade to the cost of not making a meeting,” DiLeo said. “Travel policy is a framework, not a fence. Most travelers want to do the right thing for the company if they know what the right thing is.

“Travel managers are going to need to support travelers more than ever and help them make those right choices. You need to give travelers as much information as you can and let them make those good choices when you can’t be there in person.”