Cruise Industry “Super Resilient” In Face of “Shaky” Economic & Geopolitical Environment

Cruise executives at this year’s Seatrade Cruise Global conference – the largest cruise industry event in the world – agreed that while the cruise industry isn’t immune to ongoing social and economic turmoil, a “shaky” stock market (to use Harry Sommer’s word) won’t change the industry’s robust plans for the future.

“We are not immune to a recession, but we are resilient,” said Josh Weinstein, president and CEO of Carnival Corp.

“The current economic noise is not going to in any way prevent us from our collective ambitions to grow this industry,” added Jason Liberty, president and CEO of Royal Caribbean Group.

The current state of the world was a major talking point during this year’s State of the Cruise Industry panel with the CEOs of Royal Caribbean Group, Carnival Corp. MSC Cruises, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.

The panel marked the official start of the 40th edition of the Seatrade conference, which kicked off on a rainy Tuesday in Miami. This year’s show drew some 12,000 attendees representing 121 countries, along with 600 exhibitors for one-on-one meetings, a massive tradeshow, and more than 90 panels and sessions (the most ever) featuring 280 speakers over four days. It’s a far cry from the 100 attendees who gathered for two days in New York City back in 1985 for the first ever Seatrade.

So, too, is the industry a far cry from what it was back in 1985, when a mere two million Americans took a cruise. In 2024, 18.2 million American cruisers hit the high seas. In 1985, the largest cruise ships carried between 2,000 and 3,000 passengers. Today, Icon of the Seas, which debuted in 2024, carries 7,600 passengers when at maximum capacity.

“What a fabulous time it is to be involved in this industry,” said Bud Darr, president and CEO of Cruise Lines International Association, in his first appearance in his new role.

Though CLIA’s annual State of the Industry report will not be released for a couple more weeks, Darr dropped a few figures to highlight how great the industry is doing.

In 2025, CLIA predicts 37 million passengers globally will set sail on a cruise and by 2028, the number rises to 42 million. The intent to cruise at the moment is 82%, with the Millennials the “most enthusiastic” about cruising. Seventy percent of people surveyed who have not cruised are considering taking a cruise and a third of cruisers took their first cruise in the last two years.

“This is a sign, not just that we’re getting bigger, this is a sign of great optimism,” Darr said. “We’re a growing industry. We’re a resilient industry… We have a great future together.”

State of the Cruise Industry

Though the overall tone of the general session and the CEO panel was one of optimism, no one denied that the current volatility of the stock market and geo-political issues could have an impact. We just don’t know yet what that will be.

“The uncertainty and the ripple effects absolutely have an impact on the industry,” Weinstein explained. “Everything that you’re going through in your personal life right now is what every consumer is going through in their personal life… they’re trying to figure out what does that mean for us. Companies are trying to figure out what does it mean for me. And the hard part about that is, as of now, the answer is we don’t know.”

It helps that most of the cruise lines came into 2025 well ahead of previous years.

“Wave for us was interesting,” Weinstein said. “It was inconsistent, it was choppy. It wasn’t like what a normal Wave is, but we went into the year better booked than we’d ever been before and with higher prices.”

He added, “We actually had more bookings in the first quarter than we have ever had as a company when it comes to further out years, 2026, 2027 in this case.”

But even amidst great results, there were – and will be – highs and lows.

“Something that we find that happens, unfortunately not infrequently in our business, is that the macro economy does have an impact at times on how people are living their lives. So, yes, was there a time when bookings – particularly for the current year – were less than we had anticipated? Yes, but then what happened is, people get used to the new normal. They take it in, and the bookings picked back up again.”

Harry Sommer, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings agreed.

“This year started a little bit choppy, but people get used to the new normal,” he said. “I would have said up until last Wednesday that everything was just fine. But that’s okay, two shaky days in the stock market do not have us change our long-term financial strategy and models. It’s full steam ahead.”

The Cruise Industry’s Resiliency

Weinstein and Pierfrancesco Vago, executive chairman of the Cruise Division of MSC Group, both touched on why the cruise industry is so resilient, even in the face of economic downturns and uncertainty.

” We are an incredible value and when times are harder, people are looking to make their money go farther,” Weinstein said.

Vago added: “In general, with inflation with the customer that we have had the last few months, there has been an appreciation and understanding even more what the incredible experience and value for money this holiday is.”

Not Just Big Ships

Aside from economic and political issues, the four executives also spoke briefly about ship newbuilds and the misperception that most of the new ships on the order book are big.

In fact, Liberty said, 50% of the ships on order are less than 100,000-gross-registered tons.

“We’re not looking to constantly be bigger for the sake of being bigger. That doesn’t make sense,” Weinstein said.

“The destination is an important factor here,” Liberty added. “You can’t put the same size ships in all different places.”

It was a point Vago made as well.

“When you have such large ships, they’re very much confined to certain itineraries,” he said, adding that premium and luxury cruisers are more driven by the itineraries and so need smaller ships, which can reach more off-the-beaten-path destinations.

Mexico’s Cruise Head Tax

Putting on his hat as chair of the Florida Caribbean Cruise Association, Weinstein also spoke briefly about the progress of negotiations with Mexico over its cruise head tax. While he said there was nothing official to report, he did say “there is a lot of positivity that is building” and “everything is moving in the right direction.”

“We have been working incredibly hard to find a collaborative approach that satisfies what Mexico is looking for, while at the same time recognizing the economic benefit that cruising brings and what we could bring in the future.”