Tropical Storm Erin Forecasted to Strengthen to Hurricane on Friday

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is warning parts of the Caribbean that Tropical Storm Erin is on track to have an impact on the region later this week. Erin, the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season, is forecast to become the season’s first hurricane on Friday and could become a major hurricane over the weekend.

As of the 5 a.m. EST update on Thursday morning, Erin was located about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

The NHC is forecasting the storm to bring heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds to the British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. The storm is not expected to make a direct hit, but will likely pass just north of those islands.

The most notable factor in the forecast remains the high level of uncertainty for the storm’s long-term path. “There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range,” the NHC wrote.

The NHC is also warning that the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents is increasing across the western Atlantic basin next week.

Travel Impact

With the high level of uncertainty still remaining, airlines have held up on issuing travel waivers for Erin’s impact (though many issued them in the Northeast on Wednesday evening because of bad weather around New York).

The only major impact for the travel as of Thursday morning is in the cruise industry. In response to the projected trajectory of the storm, Royal Caribbean’s Vision of the Seas, which was supposed to spend two nights in Bermuda this week, instead called on Port Canaveral, before heading back to Baltimore for its scheduled turnover on Aug. 14.