Latest NHC Forecast: Less Risk of Tropical Storms This Week

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has lowered the chances of a significant storm forming in the Caribbean this week.

The NHC published forecasts over the weekend that gave a 50% chance of another tropical storm forming in the Caribbean this week, which could have meant three successive major storms hitting the Caribbean and/or southeast U.S. in just a matter of weeks.

In its latest forecast, the NHC gives the weather system a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands just 30% of forming over the next week.

“Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized,” the forecast reads. “Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for slow development.”

The system could still dump some rain and bring winds to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday before arriving near Jamaica, Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Cayman Islands over the weekend.

The downgrade in the forecast is good news for the Caribbean and the Southeast U.S., two areas that have already been hit hard this hurricane season.

So far, this year’s hurricane season, which typically runs through the end of November, has seen 13 total storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. That includes Hurricane Milton, which made landfall in Florida earlier this month, and Hurricane Helene, which caused major damage over central Appalachia in late September.