Airfares Expected to Remain Stable in 2026: Amex GBT Air Monitor

Airfares are expected to remain broadly stable through 2026, according to the newly released Air Monitor 2026 from American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT). The annual forecast analyzes global airfare trends and provides insight to help organizations manage their travel programs in a shifting airline landscape.

“Travellers in 2026 can expect airfares to look much like they do in 2025,” the report states. 

While business travel demand remains resilient, airlines have limited room to raise fares due to economic pressures and high operating costs. Instead of broad fare increases, carriers are focusing on ‘premiumization’ and continuous pricing to drive revenue growth.

“Anticipated price stability creates both opportunities and new considerations,” said Dan Beauchamp, VP Consulting, Amex GBT. 

“Airlines are expanding their offerings through new products and pricing models, giving businesses more choice but adding opaqueness to travel program management. To maximize value, businesses will need to stay agile and look beyond fares to proactively manage their suppliers and understand how best to unlock value.”

Impact for Canadian Travellers

For Canada and the broader North American region, the Air Monitor forecasts flat pricing across key transborder and domestic routes:

• North America ↔ North America: Business (–0.3%), Premium Economy (–0.2%), Economy (–0.5%)
• North America ↔ Europe: Business (+0.2%), Premium Economy (+1.8%), Economy (–1.5%)
• North America ↔ Asia: Business (0%), Premium Economy (–1.5%), Economy (–5.7%)
• North America ↔ Middle East: Business (+3.1%), Premium Economy (+3.8%), Economy (–0.9%)

The report notes that airlines are restoring capacity that was pulled back following a significant drop in U.S.–Canada traffic in early 2025. With supply returning faster than demand, fares are expected to remain flat in 2026.

A Mixed Outlook on International Routes

The Monitor highlights several shifts relevant to Canadian organizations:

Canada–Brazil and broader South America: Some routes may see fare decreases of up to 10%, driven by softer economy demand.

Canada–UAE and Canada–Saudi Arabia: Business-class fares may rise more sharply than the regional forecast, reflecting strong premium demand in the Middle East.

Transatlantic travel: Competitive pressure and returning capacity are expected to push economy fares down, while premium cabins show modest increases.

The Middle East is identified as “one of the world’s most dynamic economic regions in 2026,” with strong growth projected in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt shaping fare trends.

Canadian Labour Settlements Add Cost Pressure

The report notes that recent labour dispute settlements in Canada are contributing to upward pressure on airline operating costs heading into 2026. This forms part of the wider economic and operational challenges airlines face globally, including supply chain disruptions and the potential for renewed fuel price volatility.

‘Premiumization’ Continues to Evolve

The Air Monitor notes that airlines are expanding premium products and amenities, increasing the number of fare types and add-ons available to travellers.

This trend includes greater emphasis on lounge access, preferred seating, bundled corporate fare packages and enhanced premium-economy cabins, important considerations for managing traveller expectations and costs.

Guidance for Canadian Travel Programs

When it comes to business travel, Air Monitor 2026 recommends that organizations:

• Actively manage airline contracts as carriers shift to more standardized, performance-based models.
• Monitor fulfilment closely to maintain negotiated discounts.
• Ensure broad content access, especially as NDC and continuous pricing evolve.
• Leverage analytics and dashboards to track pricing patterns in real time.

The full Air Monitor 2026 report is available here.