Calm Before the Storm: Air Travel Demand Rose 6.1% in February

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for February 2026 global passenger demand. With the U.S./Israel war on Iran beginning February 28, the statistics do not reflect any significant impact of the ongoing conflict.

Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 6.1% compared to February 2025. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), increased 5.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.4% (+0.3 ppt compared to February 2025), the highest February figure on record.

International demand rose 5.9% compared to February 2025. Capacity was up 5.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 80.5% (+0.5 ppt compared to February 2025).

Domestic demand increased 6.3% compared to February 2025. Capacity increased 6.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 82.8% (+0.1 ppt compared to February 2025).

 “With an RPK expansion of 6.1%, February was a strong month, showing that the fundamentals for demand growth were in place for a positive year. However, without knowing the length and intensity of the war in the Middle East, it is impossible to quantify the full impact that it will have on airline prospects,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“But some things are already clear. Fuel costs have risen sharply. With tight capacity and thin margins, air fares are already rising. Capacity deployment is also adjusting, particularly for traffic to, from, or through the Middle East, or in areas where fuel supply is an issue. Capacity growth scheduled for March, for example, has eased to 3.3% from earlier predictions of more than 5%,” Walsh added.

Close to home, North American carriers saw a 5.0% year-on-year increase in demand in February. Capacity increased 2.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 80.9% (+2.0 ppt compared to February 2025).