Tropical Storm Erin Forecast to Become Major Hurricane Before Nearing Caribbean

Tropical Storm Erin is continuing its westward path toward the Caribbean, with forecasters from both the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and AccuWeather warning it could become a major hurricane by the weekend.

As of the 5 a.m. EST update from the NHC on Wednesday, Erin was located about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm was moving west at about 20 mph, a general motion that is expected to continue through Thursday before it turns northwestward into the weekend.

According to the NHC, there is still a lot of uncertainty about where the storm will move after entering the region. The expectation is that Erin is “likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend” as a major hurricane. The NHC is currently alerting all those in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico to “monitor the progress of Erin.”

“The magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm,” the NHC stated, adding that there is “even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week.”

In response to the projected trajectory of the storm, Royal Caribbean’s Vision of the Seas, which was supposed to spend two nights in Bermuda this week, instead called on Port Canaveral, before heading back to Baltimore for its scheduled turnover on Aug. 14.

AccuWeather’s latest forecast echoes these concerns, stating that Erin presents the most immediate danger to the Leeward Islands—including the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the northeast-facing shores of the Bahamas. The forecast specifies that if the storm continues on its current due-west track, it “would slice directly across the Leeward Islands.”

AccuWeather added that Erin is forecast to “rapidly strengthen into a hurricane this weekend as it nears the northeastern Caribbean and Bahamas, raising concerns for strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf along the islands.”