Booking Windows: Not Like the “Good Ole Days”
by Dori SaltzmanLast week Travel Market Report revealed that several tour operators are beginning to see an expansion of the booking window (read article), though all reported at least some short-term bookings. This week TMR turns to travel agents to see if their booking patterns are mimicking what the tour companies are seeing.
While there are some similarities, individual travel agents reported a much greater dichotomy. The majority said that they’re either seeing mostly bookings within 90 days of travel, or very long-term bookings for travel a year or more in the future. Most agents reported very few bookings in between.
“It’s the two extremes,” said Carolina Murillo, leisure district manager for Garber Travel, one of the few agents to see bookings at both end of the spectrums.
Last-Minute Bookings
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Ralph Santisteban of Miami CruiseOne told TMR his booking window is primarily close-in departures. “I am assuming this is a temporary trend as many customers who had held back purchasing 2010 vacations because of the economy are now feeling more comfortable with doing so and are taking the plunge at the last moment. It seems that today’s consumers seem more likely to commit at the time the funds are available, cash is in hand, and they are ready to go.”
Jeanne Johnston, vice president of Colpitts World Travel also said her agency is still seeing mostly close-in bookings. “The majority of vacations on the books are for travel June, July and August, and there are still bookings coming in every day for these months … We are seeing some activity for the fall, and only a small percentage on the books for 2011; it is still early for next year.”
Summer Incentives
Johnston said most of the vendor special/incentives that she sees on a daily basis are for summer travel, “which leads me to believe that it is the case industry wide.
Santisteban agreed, saying that at this time of year he typically expects the booking window to narrow. “We anticipate seeing the booking window open up again once people are ready to start planning their 2011 seasonal products, such as Alaska and Europe. Those products typically are booked in advance and are often purchased in the late spring and early summer of the year prior to sailing.”
Christopher M. Tichy, president and CEO of Cruise & Vacation Center LLC, said that though his agency has seen an increase in last minute bookings over the past couple of years – “especially for February/March/April vacations and the summer break” – the numbers are decreasing now that pricing has strengthened. And in fact, he added, he’s noticed the booking window opening up lately.
Longer Windows
While some agents are seeing mostly close-in bookings, Stephanie Turner, CTC, president and CEO of Brentwood Travel, is seeing a pattern of mostly long-term bookings. “There are those that still think last minute is the way to go, but the good stuff seems to be booked overall six to 12 months ahead of time. I think air has a lot to do with this thinking, but people now seem to be wanting to plan far ahead for their special trips … I get the feeling that people want to have plenty of time to prepare.”
And while Murillo said she is seeing quite a few last-minute bookings, like Turner, the bulk of her agency’s bookings are long term. “People are booking way in advance; we’re doing so many 2011 bookings, especially for cruises … this is way out.”
Murillo told TMR that in the past her clients booked six to nine months out; now they’re booking 12 to 18 months out. “It’s trippy,” she added.
When asked why she thought this was the case, Murillo offered an educated guess. “I think it’s because there’s a bunch of new ships coming out and because they’re reading that the cruise fares are going up,” so they’re trying to lock in lower pricing now.
Dual Trend
Tichy told TMR that his clients are pretty well spread out. “More than half of our clients book three to six months in advance, a quarter book outside of six months and the remaining clients book inside of three months.”
Though he said he does not expect to see booking windows ever return to the “good ole days”, he expects to see more and more clients booking within the three to six month booking window, which he said “is fantastic for our business model.”
Toby Nash of Cruise & Travel Masters in Utah is also seeing both short- and long-term bookings. “In 2009, our traveler was extremely short on cash, probably a first-time traveler and booked within a 30-day window … The week after Christmas 2009, our seasoned traveler started to call and reserve … from that week after Christmas, we began booking into 2011, and those bookings are still coming strong. It appears as though our bookings are strong through September and weaken off October through December, then pick back up again for January through June 2011.”
A New “Normal”?
When asked if this split will be the new “normal,” Lisa Silvestri, CTC of Silvestri Travel said she believes the “normal of today will be that anything goes.” She surmises that short-term bookings are partly driven by the fact the economy has clients feeling that they need to spend their money before something happens, or feeling that they want to enjoy traveling while they can both fiscally and physically. “I am seeing my boomer clients planning bigger trips with a longer window so that they can have the luxury of paying it off over time and then opting to take short, inexpensive trips on the spur of the moment,” she added.
The Age Effect
One agent, however, told TMR that his booking patterns are back to where they were before the economy tanked. “My clients seem to have pretty much returned to pre-2009 booking habits,” Rusty Pickett of Shellback Cruises said. “Multi-generational family vacations are being booked a year in advance, and regular vacations are about the historical same.”
He added that this “normal” booking window will return for other agents, dependent on who the clients are. “More affluent clients, who are less affected by the economy, are booking in the same manner as they are used to.”
He added that traditionally, older clients and those with families will book farther out, while younger clients will book much closer in.
Tichy agreed. Not only are the clients that book in advance his agencies’ repeat client base, they are mostly over 30 years of age. “The more mature a client, the more in advance they book a vacation,” he said.
But Santisteban disagreed slightly. While he said his family clients tend to book farther in advance in order to give themselves time to save for their upcoming trip, his older senior clientele tends to book into a narrow window. “This consumer generally has the scheduling flexibility to wait longer for last-minute promotions sent out for seniors.”
