Agency Groups Optimistic About 2022 Cruise Sales Despite Omicron

The future for cruise bookings looks bright despite a slightly grim present, travel agency groups say. Though some cruisers are showing a bit of hesitancy to hit the high seas during the first three months of the year, almost none are canceling their long-term plans. And those that are nervous are mostly pushing their bookings ‘til later in the year when they can be more certain of getting the full cruise experience they enjoy.

Impact Varies, But All First Quarter
Agency groups that Travel Market Report spoke with were pretty much split down the middle with about half seeing a noticeable impact of the omicron COVID-19 variant (and related CDC cruise warning) to cruise bookings and/or an uptick in cancellations, and half seeing a minor bump.

“We are seeing a rise in cancellations, but mostly close-in sailings in the first quarter,” Michelle Fee, CEO and founder of Cruise Planners.

Fee said the bulk of those cancellations came after the CDC issued its most recent warning against cruising.

“When your Center for Disease Control tells you ‘do not get on a cruise ship’ and you’re supposed to get on one in a week, you do think twice about it,” she says.

Steve Hirshan, senior vice president of sales for Avoya Travel said they’re not seeing cancellations, but they’ve definitely noticed fewer bookings for the first quarter of the year.

“People who are booking last-minute winter vacations, they’re not booking,” he said.

Drew Daly, general manager of CruiseOne/Dream Vacations said much the same. “The Omicron variant has certainly provided a headwind for cruise sellers right now… close-in bookings, we’re not seeing the pickup that we normally would at this time. But people are still booking, there is activity further out.”

TRAVELSAVERS chief sales officer Kathryn Mazza-Burney concurred. “Q1 had already been soft and now it’s even softer.”

But Mazza-Burney also pointed out that the impact varies depending on where in the country their advisors are located. Advisors in the midwest, south, and southeast aren’t reporting any real impact to bookings or a rise in cancellations.

“The largest impact for us comes from the northeast, where they are taking a wait and see [approach],” she said.

Pushed Back Bookings, Not Cancellations
Mazza-Burney said travel advisors seeing an impact from omicron are reporting cancellations for the first quarter, but added they’re not “true cancellations.”

“What we’re seeing is a lift and shift. They are not going to travel in Q1 but as soon as they cancel, they’re rebooking for later out.”

It’s the same thing CruiseOne/Dream Vacations franchise owners are seeing, as well as Signature member agencies.

“It’s not really cancellations,” CruiseOne’s Daly said. “When I spoke with our franchise owners, they’re seeing people that are pushing their business maybe another month later.”

“Signature members have seen some cancellations from the new CDC Level 4 warning,” said Jean Newman Glock, managing director of communications and public affairs at Signature. “But with many opting to rebook in Q3 and Q4, the overall impact of that warning has been reduced.”

Travel Hassles, Cruise Cancellations, Itinerary Changes Don’t Help
“A bigger hit to bookings is coming from the cancellations or itinerary changes of sailings by the cruise lines that started coming in on January 4 and 5,” said Glock. “This is particularly true for the world cruises impacted. Staffing problems as staff are quarantined with COVID coupled with port and border closings are forcing cruise lines to make last-minute decisions as they adjust to this rapidly evolving latest challenge.

How cruisers will respond to these itinerary changes remains to be seen, particularly among high-end cruisers booked on world cruises. But the fear of interrupted travel, of getting stuck at sea with nowhere to go or quarantined in their cabins is what is prompting the softness of Q1 bookings, as well as the rash of rebookings.

“Travelers are more worried about getting stuck somewhere due to quarantines or changing rules than getting sick,” Glock added. “This is particularly true for cruisers who are almost all double vaxxed and boosted.”

“People don’t want to deal with the hassle,” Mazza-Burney said, pointing to the news coverage of ports turning cruise ships away. “They want what they’re paying for. They want the itinerary they paid for… they’d rather wait and know that when they do travel, they’ll get what they booked.”

Daly agreed. “We like to think the cruise ship is the destination, but let’s face it, those ports of call are quite nice. They [cruisers] want to make sure they can experience them. And when you hear and see this island is not allowing [a cruise ship], that’s just another layer of friction that’s unnecessary. People want to look forward to the cruise and to the destination experience.”

Short Term Impact, Bright Future
One thing all the executives TMR spoke with agreed on is that any impact travel advisors are experiencing now will be short-term.

“Bookings are still coming in,” says Mazza-Burney. “We’re still seeing World Cruise bookings. We’re still seeing luxury and premium market bookings… we’re extremely optimistic about the future for ’22.”

Daly echoed the sentiment. “We are not naïve about where we are right now, but we are super optimistic for where we’re going to be in a month or two from now.”

Cruise Planners’ Fee struck just the tiniest bit more cautious tone. “If this gets put behind us in the next three to four weeks, I see us having a pretty good wave season, albeit just a little delayed.”

Avoya’s Hirshan also mentioned a delayed wave season. “I think it [wave season] might be more delayed in terms of the peak and elongated in terms of timing… but as soon as people see the positive news that they want, they’re right back in the game.”

Even with the delay, Hirshan said Avoya is already ahead of last year for the first couple of days of the year in terms of bookings.

“We all hope omicron will be as short-lived as predicted and we can return to the smooth restart of cruising that we have seen over the past months,” said Glock, voicing a sentiment everyone in the cruise industry can agree with.