Air Canada Says Reports of Collapse in U.S. Bookings Overblown

Air Canada says bookings on Canada/U.S. cross-border routes are down significantly across the industry, but nowhere near the levels reported in recent news stories.

At its annual shareholder meeting Monday, the company said its decreased cross-border flight bookings for the next six months were “comparable” to an industry-wide drop of about 10%. That’s a big number considering the vast amount of air traffic between the two neighbours, but it’s not the end of the world.

A much worse scenario was described in a blog post earlier this week by chief analyst John Grant of global travel data provider OAG. 

“Despite airline schedule changes and capacity being redirected to other markets, a more troubling trend emerges from forward demand data: future flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. have collapsed,” Grant wrote.

“Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we’ve compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September.”

A statement from CIBC confirmed that Canada’s largest airline is telling a different story.

“In our discussions with Air Canada, it does note it is seeing a softening in the trans-border market and has shifted some capacity, but the decline it has experienced is not of the magnitude cited by OAG when it aggregates all indirect and direct booking channels. AC notes the decline it is seeing in trans-border traffic is significantly less than what is being reported by OAG.”

Most Canadian carriers have reduced capacity to the United States while bolstering domestic or transatlantic offerings, as Canadians show their anger and hurt to a country whose president has set off a continental trade war and threatened our sovereignty. The problem has been exacerbated by a weak Canadian dollar that makes the U.S. a more expensive destination.

Flair Airlines commercial vice-president Eric Tanner told Canadian Press that cross-border trips will comprise just 12% of the budget carrier’s network in winter 2025-26 versus 20% over the past few months.

“Overall, we’ve seen more customer and consumer uncertainty. Obviously the U.S. tariff issue is getting a lot of attention, and we’ve certainly seen an impact from that and made network moves to adapt accordingly,” Tanner said in a phone interview with CP.

As Travel Market Report Canada reports today, Porter Airlines is the exception, with cross-border capacity up 25% year-over-year. But that figure comes amidst a rapid and massive expansion for Porter, and its U.S. capacity will still be smaller than previously planned this summer.

Amidst the chaos of President Trump’s first few weeks in office, it’s tough to predict where things will go from here. Tomorrow, April 2, will be one indicator, as it is deadline day for the imposition of tariffs on many Canadian goods. But Trump’s whiplash-style leadership means no one but him knows how aggressive, painful or long-lasting the results will be.

It is not just Canadians rethinking travel plans to the U.S. French hotel group Accor SA has warned that forward bookings from Europe to the U.S. are down 25% this summer. The hotelier says travellers are being put off by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ’s crackdown on immigration. 

The company is seeing a “pretty strong deceleration” across the Atlantic, Chief Executive Officer Sébastien Bazin said on Tuesday in a Bloomberg TV interview. 

The decline is an acceleration from an 18-20% decline in the first 90 days of the year, he said. Travellers are deciding to visit places such as Canada, South America of Egypt instead of the US, Bazin said. 

“It’s probably anxiety to go in an unknown territory,” Bazin said. While cases of people being detained at the border are anecdotal for now, they have nevertheless created a “bad buzz” that’s starting to show up in booking trends, he said.