IATA Reports March Passenger Demand As Fuel Tests Airline Resilience

Despite the onset of the war in Iran on February 28, total global demand for air travel still managed to rise 2.1% in March compared to the same month in 2025. But results were widely different in various regions.

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 1.7% year-on-year. The average load factor was 83.6% (+3.1 ppt compared to March 2025).

International demand fell -0.6% compared to March 2025. Capacity was down -6.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.1% (+4.7 ppt compared to March 2025). The overall decline in international traffic was led by a -60.8% fall in traffic by carriers in the Middle East.

“Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. The nearly 61% decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1%. Outside of the Middle East demand grew by 8%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

With the disruptions continuing throughout April, jet fuel supply and pricing are the big concerns for the airline organization.

“Everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel—both supply and pricing,” Walsh added. “On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices.”

IATA says that so far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time for travel. But higher fares are likely to shift passenger behaviour at a certain point. 

“Airline resilience is being tested and stabilizing the supply and price of fuel is crucial. In the meantime, it’s important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing,” said Walsh. 

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets 

International RPK fell -0.6%, the first decline since March 2021. This fall was due to the major decrease in Middle East traffic. In contrast, other international markets grew by 9%, and the passenger load factor rose in all regions except the Middle East. 

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved an 11.5% year-on-year increase in demand. European carriers saw a 7.7% year-on-year increase in demand, while North American carriers saw a 3.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Transatlantic travel grew 3.3% and the growth rate between Asia and North America more than doubled compared to February.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 60.8% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity decreased 56.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 67.8% (-6.6 ppt compared to March 2025). IATA says these figures are a direct result of the US-Israel-Iran war, which closed much of the airspace in the region. 

Latin American airlines achieved a 12.1% year-on-year increase in demand as capacity climbed 8.4% year-on-year. African airlines saw a 19.2% year-on-year increase in demand. 

Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year, which IATA said was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. 

“All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” said Walsh.