Global Leisure Travel Growth: Insights from the Virtuoso Symposium

The latest outlook presented at the Virtuoso Symposium finds global leisure travel growth is levelling, but high-value segments, particularly luxury, continue to outperform, driven by strong forward bookings, pricing power and adaptable client behaviour.

According to Oxford Economics, international travel projections for 2026 have been revised downward since late 2025, while domestic travel has seen a modest upward adjustment. Despite these recalibrations, both segments are still expected to grow steadily through 2027 and 2028.

China stands out as a key growth engine: international leisure travel forecasts have been revised upward across all three forecast years, with domestic travel in 2026 also increasing. Growth in China is projected to reach up to three times the global average, reinforcing its strategic importance for long-term planning.

Forward demand is robust. Bookings made one to two years in advance increased by 23% in the first quarter compared to 2025, signalling sustained client confidence and longer planning horizons. At the same time, average daily rates for preferred partners climbed between 10% and 12% per month, underscoring continued pricing strength in the luxury segment.

Live polling during the Symposium highlighted the tangible impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Rather than cancelling travel outright, clients are largely opting to reroute:

• 70% of agencies and 66% of partners report clients choosing alternate destinations
• Cancellation rates remain low at 11% among agencies and 8% among partners

When trips are postponed or cancelled, the primary concerns are personal safety (66%) and the risk of being stranded (64%).

Demand is being redistributed geographically, creating opportunities in alternative regions:

• Continental Europe leads with 59% of redirected demand
• North and Southeast Asia follow at 39%
• Latin America and the Caribbean capture 35%

Virtuoso’s global Owner/Manager Outlook Survey points to sustained optimism across the network. Nearly eight in ten agency leaders (78%) expect sales to increase in 2026, with 41% projecting double-digit growth. Notably, 12% anticipate gains between 21% and 50%.

While sentiment is broadly consistent, Greater China stands out, with 26% of agencies expecting growth in the 21% to 50% range. Australia, New Zealand, and parts of Asia are slightly more cautious.

Geopolitical conflict (88%) and political uncertainty (75%) are identified as the top external risks. However, artificial intelligence is increasingly viewed as an opportunity rather than a threat, particularly among agency owners in Canada and the U.S., where adoption is gaining traction as a tool for efficiency and client service.

Agency leaders also weighed in on the evolving traveler preferences expected to shape demand. Globally, discovering new destinations ranked as the top trend, cited by 72% of respondents, ahead of returning to familiar places (21%), signalling continued appetite for exploration.

Immersive and slower‑paced travel followed, selected by nearly half of respondents (49%) and led by more than 60% in Australia/New Zealand, the U.S. and Canada. By contrast, price‑driven behaviours such as lower‑cost accommodations, shorter trips and increased price sensitivity ranked near the bottom of the list.