Fingers Crossed, Tour Firms Look to a Brighter 2017, Part Two

This is the second of a three-part series about the tour outlook for 2017.

Part one reported that as this year’s challenging travel season nears its close, tour operators are hopeful that once the U.S. presidential election season is safely past, travelers will get serious about booking trips for 2017.

The impact of terrorist events in Paris, Brussels and elsewhere has been widely felt in 2016 and, unlike the vagaries of the election, the threat of terrorism will persist into 2017 and beyond. “Global terrorism is a terrible reality for us all to deal with. That is by far the toughest thing we face,” said Paul Wiseman, president of Trafalgar.

“Certainly there were events this year—Paris, Brussels—that made people change when they booked,” said Vanessa Parrish, channel marketing manager for Globus Family of Brands. “But we really feel like next year there’s going to be some good opportunity.” Despite the pervasive threat of terrorism, “people who want to travel will travel,” she said.

John Stachnik, president and co-owner of Mayflower Tours, said like his colleagues he sees plenty of avid, intrepid travelers who won’t be deterred. But the reality is that “even if 90% of the people think that way, that means your sales are down 10%.”

Avanti Destinations’ chief marketing officer John Hanratty said his firm “remains optimistic.” Despite all the factors adversely affecting travel in 2016, “we’re still going to close the year positive, from a revenue standpoint.”

But Hanratty also voiced a serious note of caution about the year ahead. “Entering 2017 the industry fear is that everybody is holding back. If you look at our bookings for 2017, they are not where they were at the same time last year. There’s a lot of folded arms, waiting to see if another shoe will drop or if we will go back to normal.

Timing could change
At Globus, “the passiveness of the international traveler, that waiting to book” is the firm’s single-biggest concern, Parrish said. “There’s not a sense of urgency.” Even the seemingly unstoppable river cruise market has been affected, with bookings coming much closer to departure than in years past.

That waiting-to-book pattern could mean that normally robust fourth-quarter booking activity will roll over into the first quarter of 2017. “We’re telling our agents don’t wait until Q1. Start the conversations now, get people excited about going,” Parrish said.

If demand fails to rebound by December or early January, agents can expect to see operators pushing promotions into the marketplace, some said. But that could be good news for travel agents.

“The advantage for a travel agent is the confusion in the marketplace. There’s too much noise, too many offers,” said Scott Wiseman of Travel Impressions. “I find these periods solidify the need for working with a travel agent. There’ll be more and more reliance on the agent community.”

Next time: Tour firms are adding destinations and products to capitalize on shifting travel patterns.