First Hurricane of 2024 Could Hit Caribbean Next Week

A storm system forming in the south-central Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is expected to gain strength over the coming days, possibly forming the first hurricane of the 2024 season.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said early Friday that it is tracking a storm system, called AL95, currently several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC expects the system to start to gain momentum and strength as it moves westward over this weekend towards the Windward Islands.

According to the NHC, there’s a “high” chance of formation (80%) over the next 48 hours, and an even higher chance (90%) of formation over the next week. It has yet to give a prediction for the exact timing of the storm, however.

AccuWeather has a more specific prediction, with its senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski writing on Friday that the system is “projected to at least reach tropical storm intensity.”

He also wrote that there is a “chance the system reaches Category 1 hurricane strength” when it reaches the Windward Islands, which include St. Vincent, Granada, St. Lucia, and more. There’s also a chance the storm ramps up more than expected and turns into a “major hurricane.”

“Depending on steering breezes, the system may push westward across Central America later next week or turn northwestward and reach the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend, where it would become a concern for the United States. For this reason, all interests in the Caribbean, Central America, and the Gulf Coast of the U.S. are urged to monitor the system’s progress,” Sosnowski added.

For timing, AccuWeather says the storm could move through the eastern Caribbean starting on Monday night and move through the area, towards the Gulf of Mexico, through the week.  

If and when it does form, the storm will be called Beryl, the next name up on the list of named storms. The first, named Alberto, hit parts of Mexico and Texas earlier this month.