Experts Predict 2018 Hurricane Season Will Be Slightly Above Average

Still smarting from a series of 2017 storms that devastated Texas, Florida and the Caribbean, the travel industry should be preparing for an above-average 2018 hurricane season.

“Forecasts predict that there is a near-normal or slightly above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” according to a report from FocusPoint International, a global provider of medical and security travel assistance services for business and leisure travelers.

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FocusPoint analyzed the collective forecasts issued by a group of government, private, and academic institutions. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10-16 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes.

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project predicted 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes, with a 63 percent likelihood of at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or above) making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, and a 39 percent likelihood for landfall on the U.S. eastern coast (including Florida).

Landfall was a 38 percent likelihood for the Gulf Coast (from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas), while the probability for at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean was 52 percent.

An average season in the Atlantic basin produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1-Nov. 30, a period when tropical disturbances and cyclones typically form in the Atlantic Ocean. The season peaks mid-August through mid-October.

The 2018 season has already experienced the formation of subtropical storm, Alberto, off the east coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula at the end of May.

According to the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, 2017 was the seventh most active season on record (dating back to 1851) and the most active season since 2005, producing an above-average 17 named storms. Ten of those storms were hurricanes, of which six were major hurricanes, with two making landfall in the continental U.S., Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Four other storms hit the U.S. in 2017, including Cindy in Texas, Emily and Phillipe in Florida, and Nate in Mississippi.