Global Passenger Demand Down 2.2% in May, But IATA Praises Resilience

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 2.2% in May 2026 compared to the year before period. 

When the war-impacted Middle East is removed from the equation, global demand grew by 0.7%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 2.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.5% (+0.1 ppt compared to May 2025), a record high for May.

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centred on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall,” said  Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.  

“That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.” 

International demand fell 1.6% compared to May 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 3.1%. Capacity was down 2.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.7% (+0.7 ppt compared to May 2025). 

Domestic demand contracted 3.1% compared to May 2025. Capacity decreased 2.1% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0% (-0.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

“Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time,” Walsh added.

“Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs.”