Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Continues to Disappoint: IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released estimates showing that global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production is expected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, representing just 0.8% of aviation fuel use, at a cost to airlines of $4.3 billion.

“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. 

“Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest.”

Walsh added: “The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market.” 

To accelerate the scale-up of SAF, IATA is calling for coordinated action across four priorities: 

• Expand renewable energy supply to underpin SAF production and ensure sufficient feedstocks and clean energy are available. 
• Ensure open access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage, and airport fuel systems, to enable fair competition and efficient distribution. 
• Strengthen policy support through effective sequencing of production incentives and investment frameworks that provide certainty and reduce risk before any mandates are imposed.
• Enable a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices critical for the airline financial and economic sustainability. A global SAF market must also be supported by harmonized standards that create enduring rules and fair competition. 

The e-SAF Problem

Along with SAF (from biofuel sources), e-SAF (electro-SAF) should also play a growing role in air transport’s decarbonization. The conversion of renewable electricity using a power-to-liquid (PtL) process can produce e-SAF. E-SAF does not require biomass or waste oils, IATA says, but does require large amounts of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and CO2. 

The EU and the UK have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. However, global production capacity currently operating and under construction stands at around 0.02 million tonnes with only one single production site in operation. It would take approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries to achieve the mandated volume. Moreover, no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been made over the past year.

IATA says the EU and UK mandates will not be achieved.

“The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic – they are utterly detached from reality. It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.

“A serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and build the e-SAF production capacity on sound economics. Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results,” Thomsen said.