IATA: Air Travel Demand Slips in September; Middle East, NA Weigh on Growth

Global air passenger demand declined slightly in September 2026, as weakness in the Middle East and North America continued to weigh on the aviation industry’s recovery, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Worldwide passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), fell 0.5 per cent compared to September 2025, while airline capacity declined 0.2 per cent year-over-year.

The global passenger load factor slipped 0.3 percentage points to 83.2 per cent, IATA says.

However, the figures reveal a more encouraging picture outside the Middle East, where passenger demand increased 0.3 per cent compared to the same month last year.

International travel also showed signs of resilience, with demand rising 0.4 per cent globally and 1.7 per cent when the Middle East was excluded.

“Air traffic demand fell 0.5 per cent in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president sustainability and chief economist, in a press release.

“These patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions.”

Domestic travel sees sharper decline

Domestic air travel experienced a more pronounced slowdown in September, with passenger demand falling 2.2 per cent compared to a year earlier.

Domestic capacity declined 1.3 per cent, while the passenger load factor dropped 0.7 percentage points to 82.5 per cent.

International markets performed comparatively better, recording a modest 0.4 per cent increase in demand.

International capacity rose 0.5 per cent year-over-year, while the load factor edged down 0.1 percentage points to 83.6 per cent.

The September results underscore the uneven performance of global aviation markets as airlines navigate geopolitical tensions, fluctuating fuel costs and regional differences in travel demand.